Bitcoin Will Get a Chance to Break Above $100K This Friday

Analysts have declared this Wednesday the most important day for Bitcoin. Besides the US Fed meeting on interest rates, the financial reports of the largest tech companies will be released. But Bitcoin's chart contradicts the analysts' hopes. The cryptocurrency has been falling since October 2025, despite the Fed cutting rates and the tech-heavy NASDAQ index repeatedly hitting new highs.

Bitcoin's record surge to $126K was entirely due to a government shutdown. As soon as Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress failed to agree on a budget on October 1, 2025, BTC powerfully launched toward $118K in the first hours after the news broke.

Clearly, paralysis in the US government and financial system positively affects BTC. Investors don't know how to react when official statistics stop being released, so they buy crypto, proving its independence from monetary policy and other financial data.

Congress will review the budget this Friday. Analysts estimate the probability of a shutdown at 80%.

However, a prolonged shutdown (in 2025 it lasted a record 41 days) starts to negatively impact Bitcoin due to the overall state of the US and global economy. Therefore, if Congress drags its feet on approving a budget, BTC will likely fall. But if Democrats and Republicans quickly reach a consensus, it could resume its rise after breaking through $100K.