Bitwise CIO just destroyed the Bitcoin 4-year cycle theory, says 2026 will be massive

Just heard something that completely changed how I'm thinking about Bitcoin's future. Matt Hougan from Bitwise (the guys managing billions in crypto) just came out and said the famous 4-year halving cycle is basically dead. And his reasoning actually makes sense.

Hougan's argument is pretty straightforward - each halving becomes "half as important" as the last one. The supply shock gets smaller every time, so the price impact should be less dramatic. But more importantly, he thinks bigger forces are now driving Bitcoin that have nothing to do with halving schedules. Interest rates are the big one. Trump's been pushing Powell to cut rates, and when that happens, boring investments like bonds become less attractive. Money flows into assets like Bitcoin instead.

Then there's regulation. Hougan says the "blow-up risk" for Bitcoin is way lower now because we're getting clearer rules and institutional adoption is happening. Companies aren't as scared to jump in anymore.

He's specifically betting that 2026 will be an "up year" for Bitcoin. According to the old cycle, 2026 should be a down year - part of the bear market phase. But he thinks institutional adoption and regulatory clarity will override the traditional pattern.

The CryptoQuant CEO apparently said the same thing recently. His take was that the old "whales sell to retail" pattern is dead because now it's "old whales selling to new long-term whales." Institutional money changes everything.

Bitcoin treasury companies. These are firms that keep issuing stock or taking on debt to buy more Bitcoin. If Bitcoin crashes hard, some of these companies could get seriously hurt, which could create a feedback loop. I've been following the 4-year cycle religiously, but this argument is making me reconsider. If institutions are really driving demand now instead of retail FOMO cycles, then maybe we're in a completely different game. Hougan thinks we're looking at a "sustained steady boom" rather than the crazy pumps and dumps we used to see. That actually sounds more sustainable long-term. Some analysts like Rekt Capital still think we'll peak around October 2025, following the traditional timeline. So there's definitely disagreement here.

What do you think? Are we witnessing the death of the 4-year cycle, or is this just hopium from people who want Bitcoin to keep going up? The institutional adoption angle seems real, but cycles have been pretty reliable historically.