BTC is already 50% off its high. Does that actually protect it from an equity selloff?
 | I was curious about this, so I looked at the last few major equity stress periods rather than just assuming "BTC already crashed, so the downside is done." 2018: BTC was already 66% below its high before the Q4 equity selloff. SPX then fell 20%, and BTC still lost another 50% at the worst point. 2020: BTC was already 50% below its old high. SPX fell 2022: BTC was already 29% below its high when the equity decline started. By the October SPX low, BTC was down another 60%. Today BTC is roughly 50% below its latest high, while the S&P 500 is basically sitting at its high. Only three major episodes, so I wouldn't pretend this predicts anything. But historically, "BTC has already fallen a lot" hasn't meant it was insulated from the next equity shock. That's the part of the current setup I find interesting. [link] [comments] |