BTC/XAU = y(t) = 0.015 . (1.85)^t

Analyzing the BTC/XAU ratio provides a "scarce vs. scarce" perspective, potentially filtering out fiat denominator noise to clarify Bitcoin's underlying trend relative to Gold.

Focusing only on the smoothed long-term average trend (ignoring extreme volatility and cycles), the data best fits an exponential function. Based on rough estimates (using an early 2013 start date and approximate late April 2025 prices), an illustrative model for this average trend is: y(t) = 0.015 . (1.85)^t

• y(t) = Estimated average trendline BTC/XAU ratio (oz Gold per BTC)
• t = Years elapsed since early 2013
• (b = 1.85 implies an average trend growth factor of ~1.85x per year for this specific period/estimate)

The projected average trendline values for the Bitcoin price in Gold Ounces (oz/BTC) for the next three years are approximately:

• ⁠April 2026 (t = 13.25): 51.5 oz/BTC

• ⁠April 2027 (t = 14.25): 95.2 oz/BTC

• ⁠April 2028 (t = 15.25): 176.1 oz/BTC

--- CRITICAL CAVEATS --- * Illustrative Average Trend ONLY: Ignores real volatility/cycles. Actual chart differs drastically. * No Predictive Value. * NOT Financial Advice.

This model isolates the severely smoothed trend; actual market behavior is dominated by volatility around this average.