I backtested buying BTC at 30%, 40% and 50% drawdowns vs weekly DCA

I ran a backtest to compare buying only during bigger BTC drawdowns with just buying every week over the last 1, 3 and 5 years.

For the drawdown version I used:

• 30% below ATH: buy $10
• 40% below ATH: buy $20
• 50% below ATH: buy $30
• Max one buy every 7 days

Then I adjusted the weekly DCA amount for each period so both approaches invested roughly the same amount of money. I didn’t want the result to come from one side simply putting more money into BTC.

Here’s what I got

https://preview.redd.it/8uwr58tgkpnh1.png?width=2822&format=png&auto=webp&s=691826d90205088a1195c306795443e3cc9ef192

5 years
Invested: $3,430
Drawdown buys: $7,601.74 (+121.62%)
Weekly DCA: $5,109.89 (+49.00%)

3 years
Invested: $1,130
Drawdown buys: $1,638.83 (+45.03%)
Weekly DCA: $1,105.33 (-2.22%)

1 year
Invested: $570
Drawdown buys: $518.76 (-8.99%)
Weekly DCA: $448.08 (-21.35%)

I knew the timing of the buys would make a difference, but I didn’t expect the gap in the 3 and 5 year periods to be this large.

Of course there are periods where you’re just sitting on cash waiting for a 30% drop while BTC keeps going up. And buying at -30% obviously doesn’t mean it won’t keep falling.

This also made me wonder how people who say they keep some cash for dips actually do it in practice. Do you already know smth like “I’ll buy X at -30%, Y at -40%” before it happens, or do you just see how you feel when BTC gets there?