Long Term Holder (2+ year) Activity is Signaling Strong Conviction at These Levels

I created this interactive chart from my web development project (full-node data analysis) and wanted to share what it’s showing.

• Yellow line = BTC price
• Pink area = daily volume from coins 2+ years old (all older age bands combined)
• Bottom bars = total BTC spent by age band in each major period

What jumps out:

• In prior cycles, every time we had a big flush and then activity from 2+ year coins dropped to almost nothing, that zone lined up with a bottoming region.
• Once the “old hands” went quiet, price chopped for a bit… and then the next leg up started.
• You can see those stretches on the chart where the pink volume basically hugs the zero line while price is still depressed.

Over the last few weeks, after all the liquidations and ETF churn, the 2+ year cohort has suddenly gone very quiet again. Almost all of the movement is coming from newer coins (which I've turned off in this screenshot) and short-term traders, not from people who’ve held through multiple cycles. Put more simply, long term holders show you when price has bottomed or is in for sideways chop. Short term holders show fear and chase.

That doesn’t mean “instant moon” or some guaranteed signal, but historically:

Long-term holders aren’t selling into these levels. They’ve mostly stepped back and let the tourists and paper games fight it out.

Not financial advice, of course... just sharing what the on-chain tape is saying from the point of view of the people who’ve already seen a few cycles.