The Bitcoin Halving Paradox Rules Out New Yearly Lows

The price of Bitcoin has been rising since 28 February, the first day of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. The official closure of the Strait of Hormuz only triggered a temporary sell-off of BTC, after which the price quickly recovered.

The Bitcoin chart shows that repeated breakdowns in negotiations aimed at ending the war have only caused minor corrections. The two-week ceasefire that began on 8 April led to the cryptocurrency's continuous growth throughout the month.

BTC spent the second half of May in a sell-off. This was not related to the war in Iran. The cryptocurrency was affected by data showing accelerating inflation in the US and globally.

Expensive oil will lead to a decline in global GDP. A drop in its price amid new US–Iran negotiations will not change anything. The new reality of oil at $90–$100 will persist until 2027, even if the Strait of Hormuz opens.

Consequently, many analysts have started discussing Bitcoin at $60k and below. However, the halving paradox, which is expected to occur in 2028, will prevent Bitcoin from reaching new yearly lows. Investors' firm expectation of at least a twofold increase in Bitcoin's price due to rising mining costs will trigger a powerful FOMO trend, even in the event of a stock market crash.

This has already happened in Bitcoin's history:

In 2015, The Chinese stock market crashed by 32% over the summer (the Shanghai CE bubble), oil prices plummeted from $100 to $35, and a global commodities bear market emerged.

While oil and stocks were falling, the price of Bitcoin quietly rose by 143% over the year. The halving in July 2016 became the catalyst for growth, reaching $20k by the end of 2017. The Chinese crisis showed no correlation.

1. The US-China trade war, yield curve inversion (a signal of a potential recession), a slowdown in global industry and a 20% correction in the S&P at the end of 2018 all occurred.

Despite the trade war, BTC rose by 300% in 2019 — completely decoupling from macroeconomic factors. COVID in March 2020 caused a brief crash to $3,800, but the May 2020 halving triggered a rally to $69K.

1. The collapse of SVB, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse (March 2023). High inflation, interest rates at a 20-year high. The FTX collapse (November 2022) destroyed trust in crypto. Moody’s downgraded its outlook for the entire U.S. banking system.

SVB literally sent BTC soaring—the banking crisis amplified the “Bitcoin vs. banks” narrative. In 2023, growth reached +167% despite interest rates and the crisis. Pre-halving accumulation began precisely at the moment of peak fear.