The boy who cried supply shock

There have been a lot of posts about supply shock and what will happen to the price of bitcoin when that shock occurs. Let’s double click into the supply shock numbers and when we should expect to actually see the shock.

From the start of January 2025 there were 2.89M bitcoin collectively on the large exchanges. Today there are roughly 2.25M. That is a 22% decrease of Bitcoin on the exchanges. It is a conservative view to assume that by the end of 2025 the decease will continue beyond 25% from the initial 2.89M at the start of the year.

2025 is the year where weaker hands are selling to diamond hands who are taking bitcoin off the exchanges with the long view in mind.

By the end of 2027 it is conceivable that there will be less than 1 million bitcoin on the exchanges. I suspect that the rate of bitcoin leaving the exchanges is going to increase as bitcoin becomes more adopted throughout the globe.

So when is the supply shock going to happen? My guess is some time in 2028.