The Math Behind the Crash: Why $87k is a Trap, and the Miner Death Spiral begins in Dec 2025 - Feb 2026.

I’m not here to spread FUD. I’m here to show you the numbers that the "Moon Boys" are ignoring.
I predicted the COVID impact before the lockdowns. I called the previous crypto tops on Reddit when sentiment was at its peak. Now, my indicators are screaming red again.

We are approaching a liquidity crisis comparable to 2008, but this time, the trigger is the broken economics of Bitcoin mining.

1. The Profitability Crunch (Napkin Math)
Let’s look at the raw data. The market price has risen, but not enough to cover the halving.

• Pre-2024 Era: Reward = 6.25 BTC. At a price of 60k,revenueperblockwas∗∗60\`k``,``revenueperblockwas``∗∗` 375,000**.
• Current Era (Nov 2025): Reward = 3.125 BTC. At a price of ~87k,revenueperblockis∗∗ 87\`k``,``revenueperblockis``∗∗` 271,000**.

The Reality: Revenue is down ~28% in USD terms. Meanwhile, network difficulty (Hashrate) is at an All-Time High, and industrial electricity costs have surged by 15-20%.
Conclusion: The bottom 30% of miners are underwater. They are operating at a loss, surviving solely on loans and burning through their HODL stashes.

2. The Christmas Trigger (December 2025 - February 2026)
Why now?

• Fiscal Year End: Mining companies need to close their books. They cannot show massive losses to shareholders.
• Holiday OpEx: Operational expenses skyrocket in winter (heating/cooling balance, holiday bonuses, tax season preparation).
• Liquidity Need: Miners need cash to pay debts, not Bitcoin.

This creates a forced selling event. The weak miners will dump their treasuries to survive the winter. This selling pressure will tank the price, pushing the mid-tier miners into insolvency. This is the Death Spiral.

3. The Timelines: Two Points of Failure

• Scenario A (The Immediate Crash): Dec 2025 – Feb 2026. This is the most likely scenario. The combination of the post-halving revenue drop and end-of-year financial pressure breaks the miners' backs. We see a cascade of bankruptcies, dragging the price down to production cost levels (30k−30\`k``−` 40k).
• Scenario B (The Delayed Death): 2028 Halving. If the market somehow manipulates the price to keep miners alive now, it only delays the inevitable. The next halving (1.5625 BTC reward) is the mathematical hard stop. Unless BTC hits $300k+ by 2028, the entire mining infrastructure becomes economically unviable. The crash then will be final.

4. The Macro Contagion (The Evergrande Link)
Crypto is no longer isolated. A mining collapse kills demand for semiconductors (TSMC/Samsung) and hits energy contracts.
This liquidity crunch will expose the global "zombie economy," specifically the fragile Chinese real estate sector (Evergrande legacy). When crypto liquidity evaporates, margin calls will ripple through Asian markets, triggering a global recession similar to 1929 or 2008.

Summary:
The chart looks bullish to retail, but the engine room (mining) is on fire.
Watch the Miner Revenue per Terahash. If it dips further, the capitulation begins.

Cash is King right now. Good luck.