Three Major Stages of Adoption/Are there Ten more doublings left??
I am sure this is not new but it is so important that it should be repeated:
1. Individuals: Able to devote relatively small sums to purchase BTC and they spent a lot of time spreading the word
2. Small States like El Salvador: Have much larger resources than most individuals and also change the paradigm: In 2011, who would have thought that any country would adopt BTC as a national currency?
3. Large States: Perhaps inspired by El Salvador and needing an alternative to traditional international payment systems, begin not just purchasing BTC and using it internationally (Russia is looking into this) but also realize that they can use the fiat that they print for essentially nothing to BUY BTC. This is frigging huge. And we are in the very early stages of this. That states like Russia are interested in official use of BTC, not merely allowing citizens to use it and mine it, seems like might be hard to over-estimate. BTC has unbelievable doubled roughly 20 times -- million-to-1 return in the decade prior to 2022. I think there might be another 10 doublings left (another 1000-to-1). It is sure hard to believe it can remain anywhere near its current price for much longer.
Note: There are less major stages, like ETFs. Also, what I always think of is this: One trillion marketcap means BTC is no fluke, it is here to stay. Getting to parity with gold's marketcap, another 4 or 5 doublings, is the least I would expect.
Another stage was major mining operations that become a significant factor in power grids for states like Texas.
That BTC mining can offset the cost of building new power plants (they can mine well before customers start paying their electric bills) is important.
And there are no doubt other factors that have yet to be considered, at least by me. Maybe AI will play some role.
Finally, one might argue that what is true about BTC is also true about any crypto. That is certainly, absolutely false. Only BTC will be taken seriously as something a major country will invest in and utilize as a payment system. Certainly not any crypto associated closely with a company or an identifiable individual.
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