two major cios say bitcoin’s four-year cycle is fading. we might be in a “ten-year grind” instead

matt hougan from bitwise and sebastian bea from reserveone just went on cnbc and basically said the traditional four year cycle tied to halvings may not drive the market the same way anymore. according to hougan, the setup looks more like a longer “ten-year grind” than the old boom-bust rhythm people expect.

the main reason is institutional adoption. the spot etfs approved in 2024, improving rules, and stablecoins becoming more mainstream have started to matter as much as (or more than) the halving narrative. hougan also pointed out that bitcoin has recently been less volatile than nvidia, which is pretty wild when you think about it.

here's whats interesting tho. institutions take forever to make decisions. hougan says the average institutional investor needs about eight meetings before they allocate to bitcoin. so we’re still early in terms of how much institutional money could realistically flow in over time.

bea from reserveone agrees the market structure has changed but thinks its too early to say the cycle is completely dead. the big difference now is that retail investors chase momentum and buy high sell low. but institutions use strategic asset allocation, meaning they may buy into weakness to rebalance portfolios. in theory that can create a stabilizing effect, so instead of those brutal 60–80% crashes we used to see, you could get smoother pullbacks (not guaranteed, but the mechanism makes sense).

both of them mentioned that conversations with institutions have totally evolved. five years ago people were asking basic stuff like what is bitcoin or how is it mined. now they're asking more sophisticated questions about portfolio fit, correlations, and hedging.

regulatory clarity helps too. bitcoin is generally treated as a commodity, but the market still cares about liquidity and what the fed does with rates.