Why BCH Won't Succeed

Hi Guys,

This message is for the good intentioned people in this eco-system.

I've been here since the beginning and I've been in Bitcoin since 2011. Many of you remember me from my failed flip-starter (thankfully destroyed by some petty members here). That's okay, I've failed at a lot of things in my life (in most things that I try in fact), but I have had the odd success here and there.

During the flip-starter failure, I had mentioned that BCH was headed out of top-10 and into top-50. This was around the time of the infrastructure reward split proposal from ABC. At the time, it seemed unthinkable to 99% of community here but today BCH is hanging on at #30, and dropping.

Today I'm here to predict BCH will drop to top-100, and then soon after sink to top-500.

As a retrospective co-founder of a crypto which was once in top-30 and now top-5000, I've seen this happen on a second-by-second, blow-by-blow basis.

I don't say this out of some hate of this project or pettiness. I say this to help those of good heart and who mean well but who are exasperated with how things are working out. The truth is that your reality model isn't congruent with empirical reality. As a market participant you make decisions based on your knowledge, but complete knowledge is unattainable and thus you are forced to act in ignorance. It is this fact that led you to delusional beliefs (even if well-intentioned) and now reality has caught up to you.

No amount of good intentions or wishful thinking will change this outcome. Hard work can affect it, but that's not enough. It needs to be an extraordinary amount of hard smart-work and you are competing with the worlds best geniuses in this endeavour. The odds aren't good.

You need to start thinking through your position. What is the main value proposition for BCH? According to most, it is "P2P Cash". But what you aren't considering is that this is true for all other cryptos as well (even if they don't advertise it). Since the original 2017 hard-fork, BCH never attained leadership of this use-case and was always behind other other cryptos (like BTC, ETH and even LN). Today even those are fading as well as a cambrian explosion of other cryptos and new technologies emerge.

The original proposition of BCH was "original Bitcoin". This did carry some weight but that was since given up on and adopted/squandered by "BSV". And it doesn't matter anyway because even "BTC Bitcoin" is fading and I predict will be toppled from #1 within 12 months (due to being deprecated legacy technology with an irrational value proposition as well).

So where is the value proposition in this industry? As someone deeply involved in the development of this technology, I can tell you the layer-1 wars (now layer-0) will never end. There is now consensus technology being developed by Web3 Foundation as part of Polkadot's eco-system that is even beyond "layer-0" (and they too will one day be deprecated).

The technology bar now is so far beyond BCH's gen-1 UTXO blockchain that the question is for how long will you continue to waste your time and energy on a foggy road that most assuredly ends in a dead-end?

DISCLAIMER: BCH may temporarily resurge if/when regulators classify ICO-founded coins as securities (which I'm reliably informed is on the cards). But this will only be a temporary reprieve much like how US Gov stifled motor vehicles to save fading Horse-n-Buggy industry.