?Why is claim about Tether pumping Bitcoin WRONG? [DISCUSSION]
There is an argument that Tether pumps Bitcoin.
The idea is the following:
- Tether prints 500M USDT.
- They use them to purchase 500M worth of BTC.
- Some users sell their BTC to Tether.
- Now there are less users willing to sell.
- As a result, the price of Bitcoin goes up by 10%.
- Now Tether has 550M worth of BTC.
- Tether prints an additional 50M worth of USDT, and use it to buy Bitcoin.
- And the cycle continues.
Tether is happy, since they are still 100 percent backed. Users who sold are happy. Everyone is happy.
Until the whole scheme comes crashing down.
Tether is fully backed at this point - but only if you assume that 1 BTC = 28,000 dollars.
If BTC crashes to 20,000, they are now only 70% backed.
So why doesnt Tether liquidate their BTC holdings for real USD?
Because it would crash the price of BTC, and make them only 50% backed.
And because they dont have any reliable banking partners.
==UPDATE==
Doing additional research has concluded that TETHER IS INDEED PUMPING THE BITCOIN PRICE:
A study done JOHN M. GRIFFIN AMIN SHAMS on 15th June 2020 proves the following:
By mapping the blockchains of Bitcoin and Tether, we are able to establish that one large player on Bitfinex uses Tether to purchase large amounts of Bitcoin when prices are falling and following the printing of Tether. Such price supporting activities are successful as Bitcoin prices rise following the periods of intervention. Indeed, even 1% of the times with extreme exchange of Tether for Bitcoin have substantial aggregate price effects. The buying of Bitcoin with Tether also occurs more aggressively right below salient round‐number price thresholds where the price support might be most effective. Negative EOM price pressure on Bitcoin in months with large Tether issuance points to a month‐end need for dollar reserves for Tether, consistent with partial reserve backing. Our results are most consistent with the supply‐driven hypothesis.
Link to study: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jofi.12903
It seems the claims people have made against Tether being correlated with Bitcoin rises are incorrect as this study proves that Tether indeed does "Tether printing" action that supports Bitcoin and is followed by Bitcoin price increasing.
What are reasons you think the conclusions of this study are incorrect and false?
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